A picture to understand the difficult and difficult to industry

Publish Date:2016-10-27 | Hits: | 字号:

    Industrial hard to do, in recent years, many friends complain about things. The author through their own business since the consumer electronics industry, some of the thinking to summarize in order to initiate.

Figure 1 Consumer electronics industry, the general law of development

    As shown above, the development of a consumer electronics industry, we divided into four stages, including profiteering, growth, stability and recession. Black represents the industry's shipments, the green program providers and channels on behalf of the profits, blue represents the IC factory profits. These three factors, will evolve over time. Let's go through the analysis one by one: 


    First, the profiteering period. In an innovative product is developed, the beginning is only a few geeks plaything. Shipments are very low, the program's price and profit are high. With the giants of radiation and business marketing, industry shipments increased rapidly, a large number of manufacturers began to invest in R & D and production, bringing sharp decline in industry profits. Finally, with the later joined the program providers and IC original input, the industry's technology bottleneck is broken. Cheap and large quantities of production become possible, the market after this period of cultivation, has also been fully accepted these products. As a result, the industry entered a period of rapid growth.


    Second, the growth period. Profiteering period will accomplish a few brands. Into the growth period, the domestic manufacturing industry began to reflect the replication capacity. Many consumers of this product is the initial contact, there is not much ability to distinguish between strengths and weaknesses, for the cottage products provide a huge market space. As a result, the sharp rise in market shipments. The original in the profiteering period to make pot of gold start-up period of brand enterprises, some will be because of the lack of a sound market, research and development, capital and supply chain management capabilities, at this stage by the cottage products to the brink of elimination. While the market experienced a brutal growth in shipments and profits after a sharp decline, ushered in a second inflection point, the inflection point is called the amount of ownership to complete. That is, the first consumer contact with such products disappear, the market into the rational consumption stage.


    Third, the stability period. Brand management, product innovation. Into this stage, the cottage products because of quality problems, and gradually be abandoned by consumers. In the second stage by the successful start-up companies to complete and complete the supply chain integration company, will become the industry leader. However, this stage will be cross-border robbery, because the industry is extremely mature technology, the original is not the industry's consumer electronics brand, you can easily acquire in the second stage of the competition did not win the final victory of the enterprise, or use their Design capabilities and supply chain, quickly expand, and even easily replace the original industry leaders. At this stage, large companies will use their own resources and technological advantages, a higher level of product innovation, industry development, the real peak, until the arrival of the third turning point. The third inflection point is called alternative technology.


    Fourth, the recession. Due to the emergence of alternative technologies, industry shipments began to decline. This time, a little bit of market decline in shipments, may bring devastating results. Because after years of development, the industry has had excess capacity, shipments once dropped, too late to transform this part of the production capacity will be squeezed each other. What is the terrible concept of capacity squeezing? We have read a similar textbook concept, called the economic crisis. At this point, the industry accounts become infinite length, income and risk of serious imbalance. Not in the second inflection point down the enterprise, many will be in this inflection point was crushed, or even do the bigger, the faster down.


    The above four-stage model is valuable for the consumer electronics industry, such as feature phones, smart phones, mobile power supplies, Bluetooth speakers, intelligent charging heads and future VRs. Of course, the actual situation will be more complex than this simple model is often a large model nested a lot of small models, the Red Sea in the Blue Ocean. Moreover, with the information explosion caused by the mobile Internet, the four stages of the boundary is compressed and fuzzy, and may even be exaggerated to the industry did not fire, production capacity has been surplus situation. For the future development trend of this model are interested in friends, welcome to add WeChat: 1 3 5 1 0 1 9 1 2 6 9.


    Fully understand the model, the "difficult to do" concept will be more clear. The key, you are engaged in the industry and your business, at that stage. If you are a start-up company, make sure you are the first or the second stage. If you are a mature brand manufacturers, make sure not in the fourth stage. If you are in the cottage industry chain, preferably in the second phase. The image of the consumer electronics industry, like flash floods, the initial time, just a little clue, and then brutal skyrocketing, and then the torrent, and then slowly receded. When the whole industry receded, some people still stay in the river, looking for a few puddles left behind, some of the supply chain system, irons and suppliers, each other, each tea is always sigh: Industry difficult. Tampering with Lu Xun's poem to describe, "the market to the wind, the lonely old battlefield. Two more than one pawn, Dutch Ji alone anxious." However, this useful? Xiangruyimo, if not forget the rivers and lakes. Enterprises need to do is in the industry before the low tide to find the next river, rather than stay to find puddles.


Figure 2 industry recession 

    What kind of business will be in the industry to achieve the most important profit? How to ensure that enterprises are always in a favorable position? What is the role of capital in the industry's development cycle? Real estate industry will suck the last drop of blood? Endless technological innovation and industry change, what should take human society to where? With more and more questions, we walk in the road of entrepreneurship, please look forward to the next one, "What is value? "